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Malik Ayub Sumbal is Senior Broadcaster, Political Commentator, and Media Consultant. Malik has been associated with world-leading media outlets and news channels. He has more than 18 years of experience while working on key editorial positions. Malik was President at the Consortium for Press Freedom (CPF), a leading organization working for the Press Freedom and Free Speech around the world.

Turkey Cordelettes between US, EU and Russia

What has motivated Turkey to move towards Russia in prevailing scenario? This is no more a secret as Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is reportedly failed to get easy access to the Joe Biden throne. Though previously he (Erdogan) has direct access to Donald Trump through various channels and connections but now it’s getting hard for Turkey to break the ice on Erdogan’s ways towards the White House.

New US administration with Joe Biden had gestured before he came to the White House that he would have a tough hand on Turkish nerves especially when it comes to the F-35 deal went into limbo. Though Erdogan makes very sharp moves before Biden gets into the office like sidelining his son-in-law Berat Albayrak who was the country’s finance minister and being considered very close to Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner.

But in the Joe Biden regime, Erdogan may face more challenges to make his way smooth towards the White House lobbies. The United States (US) new President Joe Biden was not only offended with the Turkey’s S-400 missiles deal with Russia but also hit Biden very hard on Erdogan’s side following the recognition of Armenian Genocides.

Joe Biden will likely give tough time to Turkey on various fronts. Turkey under Erdogan’s regime is found dreaming for the Ottoman revival and its footprints to the South-Caucasus even will not be acceptable for Russia.

In Ukraine, Turkey is playing with Russian interests and simultaneously wishes to have warmed relations with Moscow. On one side Turkey selling Bayraktar TB2 combat drones to Ukraine and on the other hand desire to purchase S-400 and this wish-list have huge contradictions in fulfillment.

In Syria, Turkey has a very serious conflict with the Russian-backed Syrian troops in Idlib.

In Libya again Turkey and Russia’s interests are overlapping and it’s hard to avoid a clear confrontation for both countries. In all these confrontations Russia is acting with more patience since 2015 when the Russian Sukhoi Su-24 was shootdown by a Turkish jet.

In Afghanistan, Turkey is working for the US interests. It was supposed that Turkey would likely protect the Kabul airport but, in the end, Turkey even gets it hard to protect their own soldiers after the hasty withdrawal from Afghan Security Forces.

In this entire scenario, Erdogan’s hostile foreign policy reportedly badly backfired. Under the worst economic crisis of Turkish history and devaluation of the Lira, with every ticking clock, Turkey is stepping towards a critical economic crisis.

Turkey under Erdogan’s era is heading from a secular Islamic country towards a hardline Islamic society. Under his rule, political victimization is at its peak with new tactics to ground every hurdle in front of him.

Erdogan’s dreams to be the US blue-eyed in Afghanistan become sour. Otherwise, Turkey was all set to play a vibrant role of the West in Afghanistan. On the other side, Qatar also taking its lead because Joe Biden’s administration trusts more on Qatar as compared to Turkey.

So moving towards Russia is a new Turkish swing by Erdogan to tease Washington. During the UNGA meeting, Erdogan was neglected by Joe Biden that makes him furious and immediately rushed towards Russia.

The current meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is highly important in which Turkey further clarifies its orientation towards Russia. Turkey is a member of NATO and the close ally of the United States (US) has always dubious character and is hard to trust. So Russia may need strong guarantees and commitments from Turkey in its further cooperation and collaboration. Turkish swings from ‘East to West’ and from ‘West to East’ are unpredictable and very rapid.




Malik Ayub Sumbal is an Award-Winning journalist, Geopolitical Analyst, Commentator & Moderator. He is the author of his newly published book Tovuz to Karabakh, A Comprehensive Analysis of War in South-Caucasus. He tweet @ayubsumbal